Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.09 – 42.45

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±20.8

10427Kitimat Sentinels

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 11.12Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4862Manning Mountaineers

Provisional

Season APEX 38.3Event APEX -1.32Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7135System Reset

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 15.29Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.5 ±15.8

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 6Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 26.38Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11391Hypatia

Provisional

Season APEX 48.5Event APEX 10.07Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10427, 4862, 7135

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10427, 4862, 7135

Auto

9.6 50%

Teleop

1.5 8%

Endgame

8.1 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6390, 4270, 11391

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6390, 4270, 11391

Auto

12.7 30%

Teleop

10.1 24%

Endgame

19.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score25.1pts

Blue projected score42.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.4
Score range: 6–61
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.2Season APEX315.5

9.6Auto12.7

1.5Teleop10.1

8.1Endgame19.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	34
teleop	20	55
endgame	15	39
foul	5	0
total	48	128

Result

Final score

48 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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