Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.09 – 40.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±14.8

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 66.85Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 43.82Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7332Vancouver Puddle Jumpers

Provisional

Season APEX 41Event APEX 0.42Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 429 ±16.2

9474Red River Resistance (3R)

Provisional

Season APEX 44Event APEX 10Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7287Esquimalt Atom Smashers

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 12.57Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 17.88Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 7334, 7332

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 610, 7334, 7332

Auto

15.0 14%

Teleop

63.3 61%

Endgame

25.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9474, 7287, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9474, 7287, 9449

Auto

13.2 32%

Teleop

16.5 40%

Endgame

11.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score40.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 22–129
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 100.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.8Season APEX429

15Auto13.2

63.3Teleop16.5

25.7Endgame11.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	11
teleop	39	9
endgame	38	0
foul	5	5
total	97	25

Result

Final score

97 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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