Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.93 – 87.92

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.8 ±16.7

11149Blue Lightning

Season APEX 59.5Event APEX 9.43Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 62.21Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8331Carson Graham Secondary

Season APEX 66Event APEX 41.29Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.9 ±17

10384Sparkanovas

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 63.14Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9649Mulgrave Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 9.43Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4627Manning Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 15.35Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11149, 9406, 8331

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11149, 9406, 8331

Auto

33.6 32%

Teleop

43.5 41%

Endgame

29.1 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10384, 9649, 4627

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10384, 9649, 4627

Auto

13.9 18%

Teleop

40.4 53%

Endgame

21.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score87.9pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25
Score range: 71–130
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 96.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.8Season APEX183.9

33.6Auto13.9

43.5Teleop40.4

29.1Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	4
teleop	137	13
endgame	65	8
foul	0	15
total	232	40

Result

Final score

232 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 83.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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