Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.2 – 196.76

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.2 ±14.6

10951Saigon South Dragons

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 58.72Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 12.07Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

6364Ten Ton

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 17.41Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.7 ±11.6

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 21.75Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 132.45Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 42.56Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10951, 9180, 6364

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10951, 9180, 6364

Auto

12.1 15%

Teleop

41.0 50%

Endgame

28.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7334, 6766, 9277

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7334, 6766, 9277

Auto

35.0 19%

Teleop

105.4 58%

Endgame

40.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score88.2pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.6
Score range: 61–224
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 147.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.2Season APEX479.7

12.1Auto35

41Teleop105.4

28.4Endgame40.9

19Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	12
teleop	23	130
endgame	10	36
foul	0	0
total	36	178

Result

Final score

36 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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