Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.33 – 266.45

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.3 ±11.9

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 197.75Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9180Ursa Major Robotics

Season APEX 56Event APEX 13.46Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 166.12Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.7 ±11.9

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 136.46Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6390Hephaestus

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 25.46Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4270Crusaders

Season APEX 223.8Event APEX 104.53Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 9180, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9180, 3683

Auto

83.3 22%

Teleop

209.0 56%

Endgame

81.1 22%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6766, 6390, 4270

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6766, 6390, 4270

Auto

36.0 14%

Teleop

143.5 56%

Endgame

77.6 30%

Strengths

· 6766 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score377.3pts

Blue projected score266.5pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample178alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.9
Score range: 240–403
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.3Season APEX493.7

83.3Auto36

209Teleop143.5

81.1Endgame77.6

6Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	59
teleop	127	104
endgame	70	37
foul	10	5
total	296	205

Result

Final score

296 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 71.4 pts

Match videos

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