Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.71 – 217.03

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±11.7

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 44.57Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 56.02Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 108.12Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±12.8

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 27.93Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 94.29Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 94.81Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2262, 173, 1729

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2262, 173, 1729

Auto

23.9 15%

Teleop

96.3 59%

Endgame

42.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 1474, 8085, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

217 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1474, 8085, 1591

Auto

42.5 19%

Teleop

112.9 51%

Endgame

66.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score208.7pts

Blue projected score217pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.3
Score range: 165–261
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 242.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.9Season APEX361.4

23.9Auto42.5

96.3Teleop112.9

42.9Endgame66.9

44Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	60
teleop	98	156
endgame	62	44
foul	0	5
total	184	265

Result

Final score

184 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts