Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.56 – 424.32

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

209 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.8 ±11.7

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 42.55Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 76.46Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 135.55Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.5 ±9.3

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 50.26Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 142.88Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 231.18Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2265, 467, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2265, 467, 4122

Auto

49.7 20%

Teleop

122.1 49%

Endgame

75.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 8567, 48, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.3 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8567, 48, 5813

Auto

81.2 19%

Teleop

234.9 55%

Endgame

110.5 26%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 3.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score254.6pts

Blue projected score424.3pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 32%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.8
Score range: 212–467
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 650 vs event baseline 241.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.8Season APEX578.5

49.7Auto81.2

122.1Teleop234.9

75Endgame110.5

35Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	59
teleop	127	245
endgame	42	137
foul	0	0
total	209	441

Result

Final score

209 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts