Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.28 – 239.14

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.9

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 75.29Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 125.79Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 114.2Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.7 ±11.7

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 90.73Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 58.37Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 90.04Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6933, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6933, 166, 131

Auto

62.5 20%

Teleop

167.4 54%

Endgame

78.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 8085, 151, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.1 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8085, 151, 1591

Auto

46.7 19%

Teleop

134.7 54%

Endgame

66.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score315.3pts

Blue projected score239.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.1
Score range: 196–358
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 239.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.6Season APEX463.7

62.5Auto46.7

167.4Teleop134.7

78.4Endgame66

94Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	51
teleop	156	162
endgame	68	76
foul	15	0
total	296	289

Result

Final score

296 – 289

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts