Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231 – 499.19

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

277 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187 ±41.2

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 41.55Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 92.79Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 96.66Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 737.8 ±8.8

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 210.7Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 20.75Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 267.74Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10910, 516, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

231 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10910, 516, 9990

Auto

47.1 23%

Teleop

111.0 53%

Endgame

50.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 1768, 11175, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

499.2 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 11175, 694

Auto

66.0 14%

Teleop

289.1 60%

Endgame

129.6 27%

Strengths

· 694 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.84 · Blue 3.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score231pts

Blue projected score499.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -268.2
Score range: 188–542
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 684 vs event baseline 238.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187Season APEX737.8

47.1Auto66

111Teleop289.1

50.2Endgame129.6

81Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	99
teleop	126	207
endgame	67	81
foul	5	20
total	277	407

Result

Final score

277 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts