Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.02 – 237.62

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 4.37Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 133.13Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 73.52Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.1 ±9.8

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 84.38Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 63.62Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 89.62Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 4122, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

211 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7153, 4122, 467

Auto

47.7 24%

Teleop

102.1 52%

Endgame

46.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 2423, 1155, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2423, 1155, 8724

Auto

47.8 20%

Teleop

118.9 50%

Endgame

71.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211pts

Blue projected score237.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.6
Score range: 168–281
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 238.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX489.1

47.7Auto47.8

102.1Teleop118.9

46.2Endgame71.8

58Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	33
teleop	110	102
endgame	71	75
foul	0	5
total	238	215

Result

Final score

238 – 215

Prediction missed · off by 24.8 pts