Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.99 – 233.36

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

476 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.5

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 96.57Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 92.49Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 141.93Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.9 ±10.4

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 60.12Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1729Team Inconceivable!

Season APEX 123.9Event APEX 116.68Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 56.56Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 190, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

331 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 190, 2370

Auto

30.8 11%

Teleop

179.1 61%

Endgame

82.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 173, 1729, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 173, 1729, 8544

Auto

33.1 15%

Teleop

140.6 65%

Endgame

43.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score331pts

Blue projected score233.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.6
Score range: 190–374
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 674 vs event baseline 236.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.6Season APEX347.9

30.8Auto33.1

179.1Teleop140.6

82.2Endgame43.6

73Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	13
teleop	275	121
endgame	127	64
foul	0	0
total	476	198

Result

Final score

476 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts