Playoff · Playoff Match 21 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

317.79 – 422.52

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

439 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.9 ±10.7

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 31.25Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 68.29Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 218.25Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 32.57Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 239.12Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 150.83Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 238, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

317.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4176, 238, 1922

Auto

46.8 15%

Teleop

169.0 54%

Endgame

96.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 20%

Blue · 271, 5813, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.5 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 5813, 48

Auto

58.8 14%

Teleop

229.8 56%

Endgame

124.0 30%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 20%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score317.8pts

Blue projected score422.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 20%, blue 35%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.7
Score range: 273–468
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 898 vs event baseline 249.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.9Season APEX633.1

46.8Auto58.8

169Teleop229.8

96.9Endgame124

103Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	109
teleop	215	263
endgame	125	77
foul	15	10
total	439	459

Result

Final score

439 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 78.8 pts