Playoff · Playoff Match 20 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.65 – 365.94

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 26.7Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 234.32Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 146.63Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.5

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 98.7Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 106.18Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 161.06Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 271, 5813, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 5813, 48

Auto

59.1 15%

Teleop

225.8 57%

Endgame

110.9 28%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 35%

Blue · 10262, 190, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 190, 2370

Auto

54.2 16%

Teleop

211.0 61%

Endgame

82.8 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 35%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score407.7pts

Blue projected score365.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 35%, blue 21%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 321–453
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 848 vs event baseline 247.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.1Season APEX607.6

59.1Auto54.2

225.8Teleop211

110.9Endgame82.8

73Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	56
teleop	249	162
endgame	195	104
foul	0	25
total	501	347

Result

Final score

501 – 347

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts