Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.01 – 216.5

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

193 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.6 ±12.7

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 67.17Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 24.01Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 86.83Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±41.6

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 42.53Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 84.86Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 89.11Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 5494, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1277, 5494, 126

Auto

28.9 16%

Teleop

87.2 49%

Endgame

63.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 4546, 516, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4546, 516, 9990

Auto

28.7 16%

Teleop

122.8 68%

Endgame

29.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178pts

Blue projected score216.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.5
Score range: 135–260
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 236.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.6Season APEX188.1

28.9Auto28.7

87.2Teleop122.8

63.1Endgame29

65Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	58
teleop	110	180
endgame	51	86
foul	5	0
total	193	324

Result

Final score

193 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts