Playoff · Playoff Match 19 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

463.12 – 325.81

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

552 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.8 ±8.8

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 12.78Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 195.85Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 254.49Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.1 ±9.3

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 26.58Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 75.36Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 223.87Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 1768, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.1 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11175, 1768, 694

Auto

72.7 16%

Teleop

258.8 58%

Endgame

117.5 26%

Strengths

· 694 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 1735, 238, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1735, 238, 1922

Auto

50.1 15%

Teleop

173.8 53%

Endgame

101.6 31%

Strengths

· 1922 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.93 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score463.1pts

Blue projected score325.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.3
Score range: 282–507
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 246.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.8Season APEX664.1

72.7Auto50.1

258.8Teleop173.8

117.5Endgame101.6

45Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	46
teleop	276	108
endgame	188	41
foul	35	15
total	552	210

Result

Final score

552 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 102.3 pts