Playoff · Playoff Match 18 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.67 – 300.63

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

472 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.5

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 91.42Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 101.38Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 155.87Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.6 ±9.9

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 67.06Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 119.33Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 114.24Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10262, 190, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 190, 2370

Auto

45.0 14%

Teleop

198.0 60%

Endgame

84.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 6933, 166, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6933, 166, 131

Auto

58.6 20%

Teleop

158.0 54%

Endgame

77.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score348.7pts

Blue projected score300.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 8%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48
Score range: 257–393
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 735 vs event baseline 245.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.6Season APEX571.6

45Auto58.6

198Teleop158

84.8Endgame77.1

63Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	13
teleop	291	166
endgame	71	84
foul	0	0
total	472	263

Result

Final score

472 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 80.5 pts