Playoff · Playoff Match 17 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.89 – 278.76

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

466 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 21.54Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 231.71Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 142.64Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.7 ±11.7

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 59.61Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 108.64Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 110.51Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 271, 5813, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.9 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 5813, 48

Auto

69.2 18%

Teleop

220.4 57%

Endgame

99.7 26%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 35%

Blue · 151, 8085, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 151, 8085, 1591

Auto

51.3 18%

Teleop

158.3 56%

Endgame

73.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 35%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score395.9pts

Blue projected score278.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 35%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.1
Score range: 235–440
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 788 vs event baseline 243.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.1Season APEX463.7

69.2Auto51.3

220.4Teleop158.3

99.7Endgame73.7

93Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	99
teleop	254	178
endgame	155	45
foul	35	0
total	466	322

Result

Final score

466 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts