Playoff · Playoff Match 16 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.85 – 354.07

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

228 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 3.66Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 131.8Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 73.39Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.5

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 93.12Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 103.16Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 157.79Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 4122, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7153, 4122, 467

Auto

50.1 25%

Teleop

103.1 51%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 10262, 190, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.1 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 190, 2370

Auto

43.2 13%

Teleop

199.2 61%

Endgame

86.3 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score354.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.2
Score range: 165–398
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 242.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.3Season APEX607.6

50.1Auto43.2

103.1Teleop199.2

47.8Endgame86.3

67Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	53
teleop	114	195
endgame	50	79
foul	30	0
total	228	327

Result

Final score

228 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 23.1 pts