Playoff · Playoff Match 15 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.29 – 243.61

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

400 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 109.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.4 ±12.8

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 32.26Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 98.09Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 101.94Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±41.6

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 49.6Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 95.86Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.15Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 8085, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1474, 8085, 1591

Auto

47.6 20%

Teleop

124.0 53%

Endgame

61.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 4546, 516, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4546, 516, 9990

Auto

38.0 17%

Teleop

141.7 64%

Endgame

42.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score232.3pts

Blue projected score243.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.3
Score range: 188–288
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 242.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.4Season APEX188.1

47.6Auto38

124Teleop141.7

61.8Endgame42.9

15Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	48
teleop	223	90
endgame	133	54
foul	0	0
total	400	192

Result

Final score

400 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 109.7 pts