Playoff · Playoff Match 14 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.92 – 397.22

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 401

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 619.9 ±10.7

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 24.13Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 68.95Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 218.84Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 21.57Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 231.27Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 144.38Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 238, 1922

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4176, 238, 1922

Auto

47.2 15%

Teleop

158.1 51%

Endgame

101.8 33%

Strengths

· 1922 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 20%

Blue · 271, 5813, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.2 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 5813, 48

Auto

68.3 17%

Teleop

224.7 57%

Endgame

99.0 25%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 20%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.54 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score311.9pts

Blue projected score397.2pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 20%, blue 35%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.3
Score range: 269–440
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 240.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

619.9Season APEX633.1

47.2Auto68.3

158.1Teleop224.7

101.8Endgame99

137Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	72
teleop	241	214
endgame	118	105
foul	0	10
total	402	401

Result

Final score

402 – 401

Prediction missed · off by 46.9 pts