Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

469.25 – 224.16

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 727.6 ±9.5

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 202.33Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 4.94Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 261.98Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±9.9

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 24.02Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 124.62Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 75.52Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1768, 3461, 694

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.3 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 3461, 694

Auto

69.5 15%

Teleop

267.5 58%

Endgame

121.3 26%

Strengths

· 694 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 4575, 166, 6933

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4575, 166, 6933

Auto

44.5 21%

Teleop

117.1 55%

Endgame

50.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.03 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score469.3pts

Blue projected score224.2pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.1
Score range: 181–512
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 240.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

727.6Season APEX387.8

69.5Auto44.5

267.5Teleop117.1

121.3Endgame50.4

66Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	12
teleop	217	44
endgame	121	56
foul	5	0
total	391	112

Result

Final score

391 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts