Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.71 – 380.57

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±11.6

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 9.63Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 57.33Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 59.75Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.5

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 103.93Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 112.52Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 164.12Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 157, 8708

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5735, 157, 8708

Auto

10.0 7%

Teleop

70.3 51%

Endgame

57.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 10262, 190, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.6 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 190, 2370

Auto

44.0 13%

Teleop

203.7 58%

Endgame

101.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.68 · Blue 3.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score126.7pts

Blue projected score380.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 21%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -253.9
Score range: 84–424
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 240.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.7Season APEX607.6

10Auto44

70.3Teleop203.7

57Endgame101.8

124Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	39
teleop	78	181
endgame	71	29
foul	10	0
total	178	249

Result

Final score

178 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts