Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.54 – 211.71

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.7 ±12.1

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 72.56Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 57.81Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 84.17Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.3 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 7.33Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 131.95Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 72.43Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 2342, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1277, 2342, 126

Auto

43.8 21%

Teleop

115.7 54%

Endgame

53.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 12%

Blue · 7153, 4122, 467

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7153, 4122, 467

Auto

48.5 24%

Teleop

105.9 52%

Endgame

47.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 12%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score214.5pts

Blue projected score211.7pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.8
Score range: 168–259
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 241.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.7Season APEX426.3

43.8Auto48.5

115.7Teleop105.9

53.5Endgame47.5

65Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	56
teleop	36	86
endgame	23	50
foul	5	0
total	84	192

Result

Final score

84 – 192

Prediction missed · off by 75.1 pts