Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.44 – 244.27

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

204 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.4 ±10.5

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 31.62Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 79.83Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 85.99Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±41.6

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 49.4Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 95.88Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 98.99Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6153, 2423, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6153, 2423, 8724

Auto

46.5 24%

Teleop

96.0 50%

Endgame

48.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 4546, 516, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4546, 516, 9990

Auto

38.9 18%

Teleop

137.6 63%

Endgame

43.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score244.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.8
Score range: 153–288
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 242.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.4Season APEX188.1

46.5Auto38.9

96Teleop137.6

48.1Endgame43.5

33Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	32
teleop	98	157
endgame	69	35
foul	5	5
total	204	229

Result

Final score

204 – 229

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts