Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.28 – 254.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 105.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.7 ±10

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 39.14Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 60Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 75.14Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.7 ±13

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 93.43Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 24.86Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 136Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6933, 8567, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6933, 8567, 1768

Auto

21.4 14%

Teleop

87.4 56%

Endgame

46.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 13%

Blue · 8724, 271, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.3 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8724, 271, 1591

Auto

33.2 13%

Teleop

139.1 56%

Endgame

77.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 13%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score174.3pts

Blue projected score254.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 13%, blue 28%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80
Score range: 135–293
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.7Season APEX588.7

21.4Auto33.2

87.4Teleop139.1

46.9Endgame77.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	56
teleop	62	74
endgame	101	16
foul	25	0
total	277	146

Result

Final score

277 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 105.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable