Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.56 – 119.27

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.8 ±10.5

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 77.49Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 95.29Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 26.78Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±12.2

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 26.51Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 86.29Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 6.47Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 8724, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1277, 8724, 11175

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

91.4 49%

Endgame

60.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 4176, 2423, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4176, 2423, 5735

Auto

30.2 23%

Teleop

71.9 55%

Endgame

28.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.3
Score range: 76–243
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 236.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.8Season APEX241.2

36Auto30.2

91.4Teleop71.9

60.2Endgame28.3

9Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	27
teleop	78	67
endgame	31	45
foul	0	0
total	158	139

Result

Final score

158 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable