Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.39 – 241.02

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326 ±12.2

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 57.99Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 74.79Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 42.61Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.5 ±11.7

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 91.71Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 137.55Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 11.76Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2342, 467, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 467, 4546

Auto

20.8 12%

Teleop

114.3 65%

Endgame

40.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 516, 4122, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 516, 4122, 10063

Auto

43.9 23%

Teleop

112.1 59%

Endgame

33.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score175.4pts

Blue projected score241pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 132–284
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 236.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326Season APEX419.5

20.8Auto43.9

114.3Teleop112.1

40.4Endgame33.1

13Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	40
teleop	66	92
endgame	27	72
foul	35	0
total	176	204

Result

Final score

176 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable