Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.29 – 244.22

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.6 ±9.9

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 0.12Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 87.73Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -2.56Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.6 ±41.1

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 76.84Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 35.65Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 131.73Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3461, 8724, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 8724, 4575

Auto

13.6 18%

Teleop

35.3 46%

Endgame

27.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 26%

Blue · 9990, 4546, 166

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 4546, 166

Auto

27.0 11%

Teleop

158.6 64%

Endgame

61.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 26%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score85.3pts

Blue projected score244.2pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 26%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158.9
Score range: 44–285
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 229.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.6Season APEX348.6

13.6Auto27

35.3Teleop158.6

27.2Endgame61.9

65Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	41
teleop	102	214
endgame	56	71
foul	0	0
total	192	326

Result

Final score

192 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable