Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

257.07 – 124.96

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±10

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 86.66Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 104.57Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 65.84Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.3 ±13

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 7.93Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 94.27Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5494Bizarbots Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 22.76Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 10262, 8544

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 10262, 8544

Auto

10.3 5%

Teleop

144.1 75%

Endgame

38.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 271, 131, 5494

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 131, 5494

Auto

40.2 34%

Teleop

38.1 32%

Endgame

39.1 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score257.1pts

Blue projected score125pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.1
Score range: 84–298
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 228.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.5Season APEX495.3

10.3Auto40.2

144.1Teleop38.1

38.8Endgame39.1

38Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	20
teleop	147	109
endgame	80	93
foul	30	0
total	295	222

Result

Final score

295 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 67.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable