Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.54 – 168.82

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±10.4

7153Aetos Dios (Eagles of Zeus)

Season APEX 84.7Event APEX 15.49Rank 45Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 59.36Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 139.69Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±11.6

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 37.71Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 51.61Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 79.5Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7153, 8567, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7153, 8567, 4122

Auto

48.3 23%

Teleop

78.8 38%

Endgame

81.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 6153, 173, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6153, 173, 126

Auto

33.3 19%

Teleop

99.8 58%

Endgame

38.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score214.5pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.7
Score range: 128–256
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 228.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.1Season APEX261.7

48.3Auto33.3

78.8Teleop99.8

81.4Endgame38.5

97Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	27
teleop	98	80
endgame	26	97
foul	5	20
total	180	224

Result

Final score

180 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable