Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.27 – 269.7

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.1 ±10.5

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 3.53Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 191.1Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 84.64Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.9 ±10.7

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 170.37Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 47.66Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 51.67Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1735, 1922, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1735, 1922, 1277

Auto

39.0 14%

Teleop

165.0 59%

Endgame

77.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 18%

Blue · 1768, 157, 2342

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1768, 157, 2342

Auto

43.8 16%

Teleop

143.8 52%

Endgame

88.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 18%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score279.3pts

Blue projected score269.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 229–320
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 703 vs event baseline 226.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.1Season APEX489.9

39Auto43.8

165Teleop143.8

77Endgame88.9

117Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	61
teleop	177	247
endgame	96	42
foul	5	0
total	353	350

Result

Final score

353 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable