Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.7 – 77.54

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 158.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.8 ±13.3

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 28.17Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 45.32Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 73.21Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.5 ±9.8

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -3.59Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 51.26Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 29.87Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2262, 516, 10262

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2262, 516, 10262

Auto

25.5 20%

Teleop

87.8 70%

Endgame

12.2 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 14%

Blue · 4575, 8544, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4575, 8544, 10910

Auto

19.7 31%

Teleop

35.8 57%

Endgame

7.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 14%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score146.7pts

Blue projected score77.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.2
Score range: 37–188
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 225.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.8Season APEX299.5

25.5Auto19.7

87.8Teleop35.8

12.2Endgame7.7

35Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	33
teleop	27	70
endgame	19	42
foul	320	0
total	396	145

Result

Final score

396 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 158.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable