Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.57 – 239.86

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661 ±10.7

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 109.36Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 63.81Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 48.4Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.6 ±12.8

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 99.77Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 86.6Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 53.49Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 238, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 131, 238, 2265

Auto

29.7 13%

Teleop

109.1 49%

Endgame

85.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 10%

Blue · 2423, 1591, 1474

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2423, 1591, 1474

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

144.0 61%

Endgame

50.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 10%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score221.6pts

Blue projected score239.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 181–281
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 226.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661Season APEX363.6

29.7Auto41.7

109.1Teleop144

85.3Endgame50.1

54Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	55
teleop	47	68
endgame	38	33
foul	15	0
total	162	156

Result

Final score

162 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 71.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable