Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.53 – 190.64

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.2 ±9.8

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 157.16Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 48.49Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 102.88Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 530.4 ±10.7

166Chop Shop

Season APEX 239.3Event APEX 117.9Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -11.18Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1591Greece Gladiators

Season APEX 206.6Event APEX 83.92Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2370, 8544, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2370, 8544, 2423

Auto

46.1 15%

Teleop

210.7 68%

Endgame

54.6 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 166, 4575, 1591

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 166, 4575, 1591

Auto

29.3 16%

Teleop

101.9 56%

Endgame

50.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score308.5pts

Blue projected score190.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.9
Score range: 151–349
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 549 vs event baseline 222.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.2Season APEX530.4

46.1Auto29.3

210.7Teleop101.9

54.6Endgame50.2

94Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	71
teleop	175	126
endgame	64	46
foul	5	0
total	306	243

Result

Final score

306 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable