Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.55 – 163.72

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 448.2 ±12.7

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 30.65Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 81.66Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 3.24Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.1 ±13.3

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 64.27Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

516StuyPlus

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 42.13Rank 26Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 57.32Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4176, 190, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4176, 190, 271

Auto

27.1 29%

Teleop

52.8 56%

Endgame

13.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 24%

Blue · 157, 516, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 157, 516, 2265

Auto

23.5 14%

Teleop

97.3 59%

Endgame

43.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 24%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score115.6pts

Blue projected score163.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 24%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.2
Score range: 76–204
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 220.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

448.2Season APEX239.1

27.1Auto23.5

52.8Teleop97.3

13.8Endgame43.2

67Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	78	123
endgame	60	19
foul	0	0
total	148	161

Result

Final score

148 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable