Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.13 – 167.79

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.5 ±12.2

8708Ov3R1y K0Mp13X

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 46.23Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2262Robo-Panthers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 32.52Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 81.38Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.6 ±11

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 62.59Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 70.43Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 34.77Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8708, 2262, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8708, 2262, 126

Auto

44.5 28%

Teleop

76.2 48%

Endgame

39.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 2342, 8085, 11175

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2342, 8085, 11175

Auto

23.8 15%

Teleop

86.5 53%

Endgame

52.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score160.1pts

Blue projected score167.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.7
Score range: 120–208
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 222.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.5Season APEX337.6

44.5Auto23.8

76.2Teleop86.5

39.4Endgame52.7

88Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	25
teleop	87	49
endgame	68	40
foul	30	0
total	207	114

Result

Final score

207 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable