Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.08 – 225.79

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

494 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 753.6 ±8.7

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 115.67Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 202.98Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 106.43Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.8 ±11

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 70.08Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 32.19Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 123.52Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 5813, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.1 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 5813, 131

Auto

62.5 15%

Teleop

248.7 60%

Endgame

103.2 25%

Strengths

· 5813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 26%

Blue · 151, 5735, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 151, 5735, 4122

Auto

59.8 27%

Teleop

120.5 54%

Endgame

41.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 26%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.16 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score425.1pts

Blue projected score225.8pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 26%, blue 13%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.3
Score range: 187–464
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 218.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

753.6Season APEX415.8

62.5Auto59.8

248.7Teleop120.5

103.2Endgame41.6

91Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	10
teleop	263	108
endgame	135	74
foul	0	0
total	494	192

Result

Final score

494 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 51.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable