Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.91 – 258.81

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.3 ±11.7

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -15.15Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6153Blue Crew

Season APEX 58.6Event APEX 40.6Rank 42Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 47.46Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.8 ±12.1

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 58.41Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 98.08Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 102.32Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 6153, 2265

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4575, 6153, 2265

Auto

13.8 19%

Teleop

22.8 32%

Endgame

34.5 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 9%

Blue · 6933, 2342, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6933, 2342, 1277

Auto

49.4 20%

Teleop

134.9 54%

Endgame

64.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 9%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score72.9pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.9
Score range: 33–299
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 221.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.3Season APEX249.8

13.8Auto49.4

22.8Teleop134.9

34.5Endgame64.9

55Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	42
teleop	30	62
endgame	22	21
foul	5	0
total	71	125

Result

Final score

71 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 67.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable