Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.58 – 277.99

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.2 ±9.8

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 129.99Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

467Center of Mass

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 53.08Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 54.51Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.7 ±10

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 64.05Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 131.51Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 82.43Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 467, 10910

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 467, 10910

Auto

44.2 19%

Teleop

106.6 46%

Endgame

82.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 27%

Blue · 1155, 1768, 126

/ 100 compat

Projected

278 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1155, 1768, 126

Auto

54.6 21%

Teleop

128.0 49%

Endgame

78.2 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 27%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score237.6pts

Blue projected score278pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 27%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.4
Score range: 199–317
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 218.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.2Season APEX523.7

44.2Auto54.6

106.6Teleop128

82.4Endgame78.2

128Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	67
teleop	79	147
endgame	34	97
foul	5	0
total	159	311

Result

Final score

159 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable