Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.69 – 120.11

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.3 ±11.7

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 99.51Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 22Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 32.18Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.9 ±41

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 52.65Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1735Green Reapers

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 39.27Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 28.19Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2423, 10063, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2423, 10063, 4546

Auto

22.2 14%

Teleop

109.4 67%

Endgame

32.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 9990, 1735, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 1735, 5735

Auto

18.9 15%

Teleop

43.4 36%

Endgame

59.9 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score120.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.6
Score range: 80–194
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 220.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.3Season APEX151.9

22.2Auto18.9

109.4Teleop43.4

32.2Endgame59.9

42Consistency145

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	74	123
endgame	12	45
foul	0	0
total	110	191

Result

Final score

110 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable