Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.59 – 163.8

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

359 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.8 ±10.5

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 190.91Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 54.57Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 59.11Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.8 ±11.1

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 62.49Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 58.55Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 42.76Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 151, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5813, 151, 6731

Auto

73.9 24%

Teleop

144.4 47%

Endgame

86.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 238, 157, 10262

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 238, 157, 10262

Auto

-12.0 0%

Teleop

116.5 69%

Endgame

63.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score304.6pts

Blue projected score163.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.8
Score range: 125–344
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 218.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.8Season APEX459.8

73.9Auto-12

144.4Teleop116.5

86Endgame63.7

122Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	12
teleop	226	123
endgame	75	51
foul	0	10
total	359	196

Result

Final score

359 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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