Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.98 – 353.37

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.6 ±12.4

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 74.2Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 44.87Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 28.91Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.8 ±10.7

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 45.03Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 147.99Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 160.35Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 238, 2342, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 238, 2342, 271

Auto

29.6 22%

Teleop

59.8 44%

Endgame

47.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 17%

Blue · 4546, 48, 2370

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.4 pts

~3.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4546, 48, 2370

Auto

58.0 16%

Teleop

210.2 58%

Endgame

94.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 17%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score148pts

Blue projected score353.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 17%, blue 25%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.4
Score range: 102–399
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 253.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.6Season APEX590.8

29.6Auto58

59.8Teleop210.2

47.8Endgame94.6

24Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	29
teleop	27	182
endgame	57	106
foul	0	0
total	87	317

Result

Final score

87 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable