Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264.83 – 275.04

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

175 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.9 ±12.2

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 112.86Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 73.07Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 78.9Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.6 ±11.2

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 61.09Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 184.99Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 28.96Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 126, 2265, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 126, 2265, 151

Auto

43.6 16%

Teleop

172.8 64%

Endgame

52.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 8544, 1922, 4546

/ 100 compat

Projected

275 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8544, 1922, 4546

Auto

36.4 14%

Teleop

130.2 51%

Endgame

88.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score264.8pts

Blue projected score275pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 21%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.2
Score range: 226–314
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 215.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.9Season APEX487.6

43.6Auto36.4

172.8Teleop130.2

52.1Endgame88.7

123Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	50
teleop	75	203
endgame	58	67
foul	0	0
total	175	320

Result

Final score

175 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable