Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 198.42

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±41.4

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX -57.83Rank 48Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 4.3Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 15.73Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.8 ±11

10910The Outlaws

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 68.43Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 67.66Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 62.33Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 271, 11175, 9990

/ 100 compat

Projected

-37.8 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 271, 11175, 9990

Auto

4.9 0%

Teleop

-36.6 100%

Endgame

3.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 18%

Blue · 10910, 6731, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10910, 6731, 8085

Auto

65.6 33%

Teleop

85.8 43%

Endgame

48.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 18%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score-37.8pts

Blue projected score198.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 18%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.4
Score range: -39–237
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 215.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.8Season APEX329.8

4.9Auto65.6

-36.6Teleop85.8

3.9Endgame48.8

142Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	33
teleop	76	50
endgame	14	89
foul	30	0
total	162	172

Result

Final score

162 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 94.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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