Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.29 – 198.56

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±10.5

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -5.79Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 29.5Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 47.58Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 502 ±11.4

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 54.41Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2265Fe Maidens

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 29.9Rank 28Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1768Nashoba Robotics

A+

Season APEX 316.5Event APEX 114.25Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 5735, 10063

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4575, 5735, 10063

Auto

20.5 36%

Teleop

43.9 77%

Endgame

-7.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 21%

Blue · 6731, 2265, 1768

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6731, 2265, 1768

Auto

53.8 30%

Teleop

71.2 40%

Endgame

54.3 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 21%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score71.3pts

Blue projected score198.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 21%, blue 10%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.3
Score range: 34–236
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 203.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX502

20.5Auto53.8

43.9Teleop71.2

-7.4Endgame54.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	71
teleop	10	150
endgame	24	116
foul	10	0
total	71	337

Result

Final score

71 – 337

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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