Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.43 – 238.67

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±11.7

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 3.52Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 46.48Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8567Team Ultraviolet

Season APEX 93.2Event APEX 90.43Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±12.2

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 70.57Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 54.37Rank 14Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 113.73Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 4176, 8567

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11175, 4176, 8567

Auto

26.5 19%

Teleop

64.2 46%

Endgame

48.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 16%

Blue · 10262, 4546, 8085

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10262, 4546, 8085

Auto

31.6 13%

Teleop

137.0 58%

Endgame

65.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 16%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score140.4pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 16%, blue 16%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.2
Score range: 102–277
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 213.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX337.8

26.5Auto31.6

64.2Teleop137

48.9Endgame65.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	16
teleop	23	61
endgame	52	22
foul	5	0
total	93	99

Result

Final score

93 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable