Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.04 – 186.32

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 81.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.2 ±11.2

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX -9.38Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 10.37Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 60.05Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.1 ±10.5

8544Reinforcement

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 59.28Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6933Archytas

Season APEX 64Event APEX 57.66Rank 23Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8724Mayhem

Season APEX 234.3Event APEX 69.38Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1474, 173, 238

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1474, 173, 238

Auto

-6.2 0%

Teleop

31.0 55%

Endgame

32.0 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 11%

Blue · 8544, 6933, 8724

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.3 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8544, 6933, 8724

Auto

52.1 31%

Teleop

76.2 45%

Endgame

39.4 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 11%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score186.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 11%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.3
Score range: 22–225
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 214.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.2Season APEX405.1

-6.2Auto52.1

31Teleop76.2

32Endgame39.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	119	98
endgame	73	67
foul	0	0
total	214	196

Result

Final score

214 – 196

Prediction missed · off by 81.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable