Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.57 – 163.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 458.7 ±10.5

10063S.C.R.A.P.

Season APEX 107.5Event APEX 36.96Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2370IBOTS

Season APEX 260.9Event APEX 87.18Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 43.43Rank 21Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.7 ±11.1

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 43.43Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

126Gael Force

Season APEX 85.9Event APEX 72.77Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 47.01Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10063, 2370, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10063, 2370, 6731

Auto

15.2 9%

Teleop

101.4 61%

Endgame

49.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 20%

Blue · 131, 126, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 131, 126, 1277

Auto

28.3 18%

Teleop

83.0 54%

Endgame

43.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 20%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.6pts

Blue projected score163.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 125–206
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 208.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

458.7Season APEX431.7

15.2Auto28.3

101.4Teleop83

49.3Endgame43.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	30
teleop	127	124
endgame	46	74
foul	0	15
total	226	243

Result

Final score

226 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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