Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.11 – 269.62

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

496 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 213.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.8 ±10.5

694StuyPulse

A+

Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 144.76Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2342Team Phoenix

Season APEX 108.3Event APEX 15.46Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4122Ossining OBOTS

Season APEX 233.2Event APEX 94.89Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±12.7

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 68Rank 43Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10262Bionic Buzzers

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 144.76Rank 25Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1474Titans

Season APEX 23.5Event APEX 56.86Rank 34Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 694, 2342, 4122

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 694, 2342, 4122

Auto

19.1 8%

Teleop

152.7 60%

Endgame

81.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 18%

Blue · 5735, 10262, 1474

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5735, 10262, 1474

Auto

29.7 11%

Teleop

171.7 64%

Endgame

66.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 18%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score255.1pts

Blue projected score269.6pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 18%, blue 11%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.5
Score range: 218–307
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 579 vs event baseline 203.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.8Season APEX177.5

19.1Auto29.7

152.7Teleop171.7

81.6Endgame66.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	15
teleop	286	38
endgame	127	20
foul	5	10
total	496	83

Result

Final score

496 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 213.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable