Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.36 – 170.48

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 150.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±9.8

11175Tidal Shock

Season APEX 98Event APEX 79.14Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1155SciBorgs

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 60.37Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 32.85Rank 47Record 1-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619.9 ±10.7

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 37.6Rank 24Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1922Oz-Ram

Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 115.74Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4176Iron Tigers

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 17.14Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11175, 1155, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11175, 1155, 4575

Auto

11.4 7%

Teleop

108.2 67%

Endgame

42.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 15%

Blue · 238, 1922, 4176

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 238, 1922, 4176

Auto

19.6 12%

Teleop

83.1 50%

Endgame

63.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 15%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score172.4pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 15%, blue 20%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 133–209
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.8Season APEX619.9

11.4Auto19.6

108.2Teleop83.1

42.9Endgame63.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	27
teleop	25	171
endgame	3	117
foul	0	15
total	30	330

Result

Final score

30 – 330

Prediction missed · off by 150.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable